Deviation
Tags
Summary
Editor's review
Who it's for
A good fit for
- Business managers and team leaders seeking to improve collective decision quality
- General readers interested in behavioral economics and cognitive psychology
- People who need to make major judgments such as investments and career choices
- Practitioners in consulting, risk control, and strategy looking for decision self-check tools
Not a good fit for
- Readers expecting a systematic psychology textbook or detailed experimental methods
- Those who only want light stories and are unwilling to reflect on themselves
- Readers seeking immediately applicable quantitative decision models
Reading tips
- Start with the division of the five bias categories in the table of contents to build an overall map, then choose case chapters according to interest.
- After each trap, write down a recent related decision of your own and review it against the mechanisms in the book.
- Managers can turn the nine traps into a meeting checklist and go through it item by item before important decisions.
- A week after finishing, revisit your notes, pick one trap to observe deliberately in daily life, and deepen your understanding.
About the publisher
China Financial & Economic Publishing House takes books and textbooks in fields such as finance, taxation, accounting, banking and economic management as its publishing foundation, while also covering management, industrial technology, applied psychology, finance and economics, inspirational growth and social sciences. Its library holds 67 related titles, including representative works such as Henry Mintzberg's The Structuring of Organizations (Newly Upgraded Edition), The Nature of Managerial Work and The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning, Simon Winchester's The Perfectionists, as well as The Logic of Thinking Behind Behavioral Decisions, the Financial Investment Logic Thinking series, Essentialism and The Philosophy of Life in Calculus. Representative authors include Henry Mintzberg, Simon Winchester, Daniel Kahneman, Zhao Jianbo, Fang Haiping, Qu Bowen, Sun Yanan and Wang Liang. Its publishing character is rooted in finance and economics while embracing classic management works and applied reading in psychology and popular science. Public information is limited, so this profile focuses on the publishing directions reflected in the library's titles.
Contents
- 版权信息
- 中文版序 人类判断的两类错误
- 引言 偏差，人类决策中的非理性
- 第一部分 认知偏差导致的9种决策陷阱
- 第1章 决策陷阱1：讲故事陷阱
- 讲故事陷阱，故事核查不等于事实核查
- 确认性偏差，更容易相信支持自己的观点，却忽视与自己立场相悖的数据
- 优胜者偏差与经验偏差，我们相信优胜者，优胜者相信经验
- 人人皆有确认性偏差，每个人都会犯同样的错误
- 只相信事实，不相信故事，但我们所坚信的事实，其实也是个故事
- 错觉机器，掉入为你量身定制的故事陷阱
- 本章小结
- 第2章 决策陷阱2：模仿陷阱
- 归因谬误，巨大的成功皆因为团队中的核心人物
- 光环效应，天才做的每一件事都很英明
- 幸存者偏差，既然他这么成功，那么我们为什么不能模仿他
- 本章小结
- 第3章 决策陷阱3：直觉陷阱
- 关于直觉的两种观点，启发式和偏差与自然决策
- 可以相信直觉的两个条件，高效度环境和快速且明确的长期练习与反馈
- 直觉是战略决策的坏导向，战略决策中的直觉无法培养
- 本章小结
- 第4章 决策陷阱4：过度自信陷阱
- 过度自信，我绝对不会犯这样的错误
- 乐观预测与计划谬误，对未来过度自信的两种表现
- 即使很悲观，也会过度精确地表达预测
- 我们总是高估自己，低估对手
- 糟糕的决策者，却是优秀的领导者吗
- 达尔文式的乐观主义，越乐观，越成功
- 创造未来需要乐观，预测未来时的乐观却可能致命
- 本章小结
- 第5章 决策陷阱5：惯性陷阱
- 调兵遣将很困难，战略目标与资源分配总是脱节
- 重新分配资源，做敏捷的公司
- 锚定效应，无法摆脱的安全距离
- 惯性政治，“外来者”会对锚定效应更有抵抗力
- 沉没成本与承诺升级，有时候做得越多反而错得越多
- 面对危险的信号，总是做得太少又行动太慢
- 现状偏差，不做决定比做决定更容易
- 本章小结
- 第6章 决策陷阱6：风险认知陷阱
- 照我说的做，别照我做的做，过度的风险规避与不合理的乐观一样有害
- 损失厌恶，失去一美元的痛苦比赢得一美元的快乐更强烈
- 不确定性厌恶，比起未知的风险，我们更愿意承担一个可量化的风险
- 后见之明偏差，我就知道它会发生
- 谨小慎微的选择，大胆无畏的预测
- 本章小结
- 第7章 决策陷阱7：时间范围陷阱
- 对短期主义的两种批评，摆脱股东至上，看向长远收益
- 短期主义的两只替罪羊，短视的市场与贪婪的高管
- 现时偏差，人人都是短期思维者
- 本章小结
- 第8章 决策陷阱8：群体迷思陷阱
- 消除分歧，人们为什么会“屈从”群体的观点
- 看待群体迷思的两种方式，社会压力还是自我调整的结果
- 信息级联与群体极化，要么更加极端，要么更有信心
- 群体迷思与企业文化，当违规成为规则
- 本章小结
- 第9章 决策陷阱9：利益冲突陷阱
- 我们不是天使，战略选择与个人利益密不可分
- 犬儒主义的局限，行为并不总是被眼前的经济利益所驱动
- 有限道德性与自利偏差，我们并没有故意歪曲事实
- 错误的诊断与错误的疗法，自利偏差并不是蓄意撒谎
- 本章小结
- 第二部分 认识偏差，做出正确的决策
- 第10章 5类认知偏差与3个偏差误解
- 5类认知偏差，一份实用的偏差地图
- 3个偏差误解，对偏差保持谨慎
- 应对偏差，改善自己的决策
- 本章小结
- 第11章 克服认知偏差，组织胜于个人
- 你真的能意识到自己的偏差吗
- 偏差需要纠正，但是到底要纠正哪一个呢
- 纠正偏差，需要付出多大的代价
- 无法消除的个人偏差，必须改进的团队决策
- 要想做出好的决策，关键在于合作与流程
- 本章小结
- 第12章 合作加流程，健全决策体系的基础
- 决策需要合作，不能独断地决定
- 利用检查清单，流程很重要
- 为什么低级别的决策通常有正式的流程，战略决策却没有
- 本章小结
- 第13章 用正确的方法做出正确的决策
- 运气与技能，决策的结果并不完全取决于决策最初的品质
- “如何”大于“什么”，做决策的方式比决策内容重要6倍
- 少分析，多讨论
- 提高决策品质，从决策流程入手
- 从决策流程到决策架构，做出正确决策的关键
- 本章小结
- 第三部分 应对偏差，健全决策架构的3大支柱与40个决策技巧
- 第14章 支柱1：对话，让观点面对面
- 对话并非即兴发言，我们需要的是真正的对话
- 为对话创造条件，对话从来不是突然发生的
- 建立对话的基本规则，我们需要遵守某些禁忌
- 激发对话，根据管理风格与公司文化选择适合的方式
- 关于对话的3个错误顾虑
- 本章小结
- 第15章 支柱2：差异，从不同的角度看待事物
- 寻找多样化的观点，让不同的想法蓬勃生长
- 借力打力，以偏差对抗偏差
- 正确识别事实，才能选择正确的观点
- 在艰难决策时保持谦卑
- 本章小结
- 第16章 支柱3：决策动力机制，改变决策流程与文化
- 不拘一格还是拘泥形式，培养良好的氛围
- 冒险与谨慎的权衡，我们并不是赌徒
- 保持长期愿景的灵活性，也要抓住眼前的机遇
- 团队合作与独当一面，必须承担的责任
- 先睡一觉，明天早上再说
- 本章小结
- 结语 你马上就能做出明智的决策了
- 更好的人能做出更好的决策，更好的决策会成就更好的人
- 改变自己，成为更好的决策者
- 附录1 5类认知偏差
- 附录2 40个成为优秀决策架构师的决策技巧
- 致谢
- 参考文献
- 译后记
FAQ
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About the author
Olivier Sibony is a writer whose work focuses on judgment and decision-making; in the Chinese book market his books appear under categories such as applied psychology, management, self-improvement and social culture, with eight titles held in the collection. Representative works include The Logic of Thinking That Influences Behavioral Decisions, Noise, Bias, Solving Problems Like an Expert, and the boxed set Making Thinking a Habit, along with multi-volume collections such as the Cognitive Thinking series and the 2021 Cheers Classic Good Books series. Judging from the titles and categories, he is concerned with cognitive biases, judgment noise and problem-solving in complex information environments, and his writing tends to combine behavioral science with thinking training for general readers and managers who wish to improve the quality of their decisions. Public information is limited, and details of his life and career are not available, but on the strength of the existing works he is known in Chinese reading circles mainly for popular books on decision-making and thinking.
Jia Yongmin is an author whose works span several fields of knowledge. Public information about him is limited, and details such as his nationality and dates of birth and death cannot be confirmed. Judging from the twenty works held in the collection, his writing interests cover popular science, management, philosophy, history, finance and economics, and social culture. Representative titles include The Double Helix, Model Thinking, The Goodness of Humanity, How to Do Big Things, Complexity Economics: A New Framework for Economic Thought, Bias, and the eight-volume series The Future Is Coming Fast. These works generally revolve around methods of thinking, complex systems, economic thought and technological trends, showing the author's sustained attention to interdisciplinary topics. His writing addresses general readers and focuses on turning specialized concepts into accessible narratives, giving him a certain influence in the fields of popular science and finance and economics books.
