Counterintuitive

Name: Counterintuitive
ISBN: 9787536495418

邓肯·J. 瓦茨 / 吕琳媛Sichuan Science and Technology Press · ChinaDec 2021

4.0

Word count: 154K words
Chapters: 73
ISBN: 9787536495418

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Summary

Do you believe that celebrity endorsements outperform ordinary people in advertising, that experts predict future events more reliably than laypeople, that pay raises boost employee performance, that lessons from history can forecast the future, that the Mona Lisa is famous because it possesses some intrinsic quality no other painting has—and so on? If these strike you as obvious common sense, you may have fallen into the common-sense trap. Common Sense (反常识) is a provocative new book by Duncan Watts, a pioneer of small-world network theory and a principal scientist at Microsoft Research. Drawing on the latest network science and on richly detailed decision-making cases from business, politics, and everyday life, Watts reveals four major pitfalls of common sense and three major dividends of counter-common-sense thinking, teaching us to recognize and navigate a complex world with a counterintuitive mindset, escape the common-sense trap, and improve how we work and live. Using the internet as his telescope, Watts explores the laws of how society works, clearly defining which matters are suited to common-sense judgment and which to counter-common-sense handling. He sets out three laws of counter-common-sense thinking—winners in life are probability winners, "searchers" beat "planners," and popularity = many ordinary influencers + the occasional super-influencer—helping you gain the future's dividends ahead of others.

Editor's review

The value of this book lies in turning "counter-common-sense thinking" from a slogan into an actionable analytical framework. Drawing on a network-science perspective, Watts shows that common sense often fails in complex societies: celebrity endorsements are not necessarily more effective than ordinary people, expert forecasts are not necessarily better than laypeople's, and the relationship between pay raises and performance is far from linear. Using decision-making cases from business, politics, and everyday life, the book dismantles four major pitfalls of common sense and proposes ideas such as probabilistic thinking, the "searcher" strategy, and popularity as the joint product of ordinary influencers and the occasional super-influencer. It suits readers who make judgments in uncertain information environments, especially professionals who need to evaluate marketing effectiveness, talent incentives, and trend forecasting. Readers need not take "counter-common-sense" as a wholesale rejection of common sense; the author himself defines the respective boundaries where common sense and counter-common-sense apply, and this sense of proportion is among the book's more valuable qualities.

Who it's for

A good fit for

Product, operations, and marketing professionals who need to make market judgments and decisions
Readers interested in network science, social contagion, and complex systems
Professionals who want to reflect on their own thinking habits and sharpen their judgment
Students and researchers in management and sociology

Not a good fit for

Readers expecting concrete operational templates and step-by-step checklists
Academic readers who prefer purely theoretical reasoning and are uninterested in case analysis
Readers who only want to skim conclusions and are unwilling to follow the argument

Reading tips

Start with the chapters on common-sense pitfalls and counter-common-sense dividends to build the book's overall framework before returning to the cases.
After each case, write down your own original judgment, then compare it with the author's analysis to test for cognitive bias.
Apply probabilistic thinking and the "searcher" strategy to one of your recent work decisions as a review exercise.
Keep questioning the research findings cited in the book: what is the sample, and where are the boundaries of applicability?

About the publisher

Sichuan Science and Technology Press China · Founded in 1982

Sichuan Science and Technology Press features science and technology, popular science, and science fiction publishing, while also covering agricultural technology and medical and health books. In science fiction, the press has continued to release works by Liu Cixin, including The Wandering Earth: Selected Short Stories of Liu Cixin, boxed sets of Arthur C. Clarke's science fiction classics, and masterworks such as Ringworld, Snow Crash, and Minus Zero, organized into series including the Chinese Science Fiction Cornerstone Series and the World Science Fiction Masters Series. In popular science, classics such as George Gamow's One Two Three... Infinity reflect its orientation toward public science communication. Its author resources in the library include Liu Cixin, Yao Haijun, and Cheng Xi, among other science fiction and popular science editors and translators; the library contains 190 titles, classified mainly as popular science, science fiction, quality fiction, and foreign literature. Public information is limited, and the above is summarized only from the library's titles and existing profile.

版权信息
邓肯·J.瓦茨
序一人生并非显而易见
序二别用“常识”理解复杂世界
序三以思维之“反”应对商业进化
序四走出常识陷阱
前言常识思维vs反常识思维，一切并非显而易见
引言常识思维常常让我们犯错
第一部分常识思维带来的四大误区
1 用常识解释个体行为产生的误区
是什么因素导致器官捐献率如此不同
被忽略的“默认选项”
理性选择其实是偏好选择
到处都是“看不见的大猩猩”
注重相关性，而非因果性
填充想象，人类思考的本质
2 用常识解释集体行为产生的误区
逃不出的循环论证的怪圈
微观－宏观问题，缺失的底层解释
格兰诺维特的暴动模型
累积优势，足以引发蝴蝶效应
实验社会学：代表性个体的影响力悖论
3 用常识解释意见领袖影响力产生的误区
六度分隔，我们都活在小世界中
米尔格拉姆的悖论
影响者，只代表社会与层级关系
社会感染＝偶然的影响者＋大量易受影响者
社会名人的影响力真有我们想象的那么大吗
“普通影响者”完胜“金·卡戴珊”
再遇循环论证
4 用常识解释历史事件产生的误区
历史只有一次，但可以“重演”
取样偏差，让我们得到想要的结果
后见之明，人人都是事后诸葛亮
正在发生的历史无法讲述
不到最后永不结束
能讲出好故事的就是赢家
第二部分反常识思维带来的三大红利
5 从常识思维到反常识思维
拉普拉斯妖，无法预测复杂系统
不确定的未来：只能预测概率，而非准确性
做重要事件的预测和预测准确同样重要
“黑天鹅”事件根本不能预测
常识思维无法帮助我们应对复杂世界
6 常识让你先预测，但你应该快速反应
我们能预测的，往往是模式固定的事件
市场、民调和模型，效果无差的预测方式
学会对自己的预测进行跟踪记录
与其靠历史数据预测未来，不如专注当下
伟大的预测源于不可预知的远见
建立灵活性，应对不确定性的关键
从预测到迅速反应
7 常识让你先规划，但你应该不断试错
Zara的常识战略
水桶测试、鲱鱼策略和众包策略，不断量化与反应
做规划，不如多量化
不只是量化，还要多实验
现场实验，一个内嵌的持续性试错过程
应用“局部知识”，棘手问题的解决思路
自助法，从实际事件中提炼的有效解决法
从“规划者”到“搜索者”
8 常识让你追求结果，但你应该系统思考
我们常常忽略偶然性对结果的决定性作用
否定组织中的光环效应
摈弃个人成功中的运气成分
打破马太效应：能力是能力，成功是成功
是拯救公司的神话，还是被过誉的领导者
公正社会，将偶然性降到最低
对抗系统性风险，每一个社会成员的责任
没有一个人可以置身社会系统之外
结语反常识思维，复杂世界的终极应对工具
致谢
注释

FAQ

Does this book deny the role of common sense?

No. The author clearly defines which matters are suited to common-sense judgment and which to counter-common-sense handling. What the book criticizes is applying common sense indiscriminately to complex systems, not common sense itself.

Can I understand it without a background in network science?

Yes. The book builds its arguments through cases from business, politics, and everyday life, and most technical concepts come with explanations. No prior knowledge of network science is required, though patience with case-based reasoning helps.

Can the book's ideas be applied directly to marketing decisions?

The book's discussion of popularity as the joint product of many ordinary influencers and the occasional super-influencer offers new angles for evaluating endorsement and communication strategies, but it is an analytical framework rather than an operational manual and needs to be used alongside your own data.

Comments

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About the author

邓肯·J. 瓦茨 Author

Duncan J. Watts is the author of *Everything Is Obvious* (Chinese title: *Fan Chang Shi*), the only work by him currently held in this catalog, where it is classified under finance and economics. Publicly available information on his nationality, dates of birth and death, education, and professional career is limited, so this page does not speculate about them. Judging from the book's title and its classification, his writing focuses on the gap between commonly accepted judgments and how the world actually works, and he tends to challenge intuitive conclusions through counterintuitive cases and accessible argument rather than technical jargon. The subject matter suits readers who wish to reexamine common sense and correct cognitive biases. Because only one work is held here, it is not yet possible to sketch his full intellectual range or body of writing; readers may treat this book as a starting point for understanding his views, and this page will be updated if more works and reliable author information become available.

吕琳媛 Author

Lü Linyuan is an author active in the field of business and economics writing. Publicly available information about her is limited, and her nationality, dates of birth and death, and educational background cannot be confirmed. Three of her works are included in the collection: Counterintuitive, Reshaping: The Structure of the Information Economy, and A Guide to Roaming the Metaverse, all classified under business and economics, which shows her sustained attention to economic phenomena, the information industry, and new technologies. Judging from the titles and themes, her writing tends to start from conceptual analysis and trend interpretation, translating complex economic and technological issues into accessible language for general readers, combining knowledge popularization with the expression of viewpoints. Counterintuitive focuses on rethinking taken-for-granted judgments, Reshaping examines the internal structure of the information economy, and A Guide to Roaming the Metaverse responds to the surge of emerging technologies. The three complement one another thematically, reflecting the author's orientation toward the intersection of business and technology.