The Inevitable cover

The Inevitable

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Word count
280 words
Chapters
14
ISBN
9787121274534

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Summary

The Inevitable is a work by Kevin Kelly (often called "KK" by readers), founding executive editor of Wired, following Out of Control and What Technology Wants. Its original English title is The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future. The Chinese edition was translated under the auspices of the Eastern Library, with Zhou Feng, Dong Li, and Jin Yang as co-translators, and published by Publishing House of Electronics Industry in 2016. The Chinese edition appeared before the English edition and sparked widespread discussion in China's internet circles. The book is built around twelve verbs: Becoming, Cognifying, Flowing, Screening, Accessing, Sharing, Filtering, Remixing, Interacting, Tracking, Questioning, and Beginning. KK's core argument is a kind of "inevitability": the overall direction of technology has its own inertia, while specific product forms can vary enormously—for example, the emergence of the internet was inevitable, but which network would be chosen was not; mobile telephony was inevitable, but the iPhone was not. Through these twelve forces he describes a world in continuous "becoming": everything is turning into a verb, products are becoming services, ownership is giving way to access, content gains value through flowing and remixing, machine intelligence is being "cognified" into all things, and human value moves upward to questioning and judgment. The book offers no fixed timetable and no operating manual; instead it provides a coordinate system for observing technology: rather than predicting whether a particular product will succeed, judge whether it aligns with the direction of these twelve forces. For readers caught up in technological change, the book offers the patience and the language to "see the trend."

Editor's review

如果你只想读一本“讲趋势”的书,KK 的《必然》是绕不开的一本。它的可贵之处不在于预言了哪个产品,而在于提出了一套判断标准:技术演进有它自己的惯性,看清那几股持续用力的方向,比押注某个爆款更重要。十二个动词,就是十二把尺子。 这本书写于 2015 年前后,今天回头看,其中关于屏读、共享、追踪与重混的观察,已经被短视频、云服务、算法推荐和隐私争议反复验证,也有些判断显得乐观。这种“已经部分应验、又部分落空”的阅读体验,恰恰是它最好的用法:不是当成答案,而是当成一面可以对照现实的镜子。 译笔流畅,术语处理克制,十二个章节各自独立,适合碎片时间挑读。中文版先于英文版面世,中国读者可以说是最早读到它的一批人。

Who it's for

A good fit for

  • 互联网、科技行业从业者,想建立长期趋势判断框架的人
  • 对人工智能、平台经济、内容产业有兴趣的普通读者
  • 产品经理、创业者与投资人,用于校准方向而非寻找答案
  • 喜欢《失控》《科技想要什么》的 KK 老读者

Not a good fit for

  • 希望得到具体行业操作方案或商业模型的读者
  • 偏好严谨学术论证与数据实证的研究者
  • 对科技乐观主义叙事有较强抵触情绪的读者

Reading tips

  1. 不必按顺序读,可先挑“知化”“流动”“共享”三章,再回头读首尾两章。
  2. 每读完一章,用当下的产品或新闻举一个正例和一个反例,检验 KK 的判断。
  3. 把它当作 2015 年的“时间胶囊”,重点看哪些判断十年后仍然成立。
  4. 可配合《失控》一起读,理解 KK 思想从“涌现”到“必然”的延续。

About the publisher

Publishing House of Electronics Industry China · Founded in 1982

The Publishing House of Electronics Industry is a comprehensive publisher distinguished by its focus on electronic information and related fields. Judging from the more than 3,000 titles in its catalogue, its publishing covers programming and design, artificial intelligence, computer science, finance and economics, photography, and social sciences, attending both to cutting-edge technology and to general readers. Representative titles include Factor Investing: Methods and Practice, x86 Assembly Language: From Real Mode to Protected Mode, The RISC-V Reader, Artificial Intelligence: Speech Recognition, Understanding and Practice, Phased Array Radar Technology, Radar Target Characteristics, and 100 Go Mistakes and How to Avoid Them, most of which centre on technical methods and engineering practice. Its authors include Shi Chuan, Li Zhong, Wang Xiaobo, David Patterson, Andrew Waterman, and Yu Zihao, among others from China and abroad. Owing to limited public information, no further publishing features are elaborated here.

Contents

  1. Chapter 1 Becoming
  2. Chapter 2 Cognifying
  3. Chapter 3 Flowing
  4. Chapter 4 Screening
  5. Chapter 5 Accessing
  6. Chapter 6 Sharing
  7. Chapter 7 Filtering
  8. Chapter 8 Remixing
  9. Chapter 9 Interacting
  10. Chapter 10 Tracking
  11. Chapter 11 Questioning
  12. Chapter 12 Beginning
  13. Acknowledgments
  14. About the Author

FAQ

《必然》和《失控》是什么关系?
两书作者同为凯文·凯利。《失控》出版于 1994 年,侧重复杂系统与去中心化的“涌现”逻辑;《必然》写于 2015 年前后,用十二个动词描述正在发生的技术趋势,可视为前者思路在互联网时代的延伸与更新。
这本书的中文版由谁翻译?
中文版由东西文库组织翻译,周峰、董理、金阳三人合译,电子工业出版社出版,2016 年 1 月第 1 版,ISBN 为 9787121274534。
书里说的“十二个动词”具体是哪些?
依次为:形成、知化、流动、屏读、使用、共享、过滤、重混、互动、追踪、提问、开始。每一章围绕一个动词展开,描述技术如何把名词变成持续进行的过程。
现在读这本 2016 年的书会不会过时?
部分技术案例确实过时,但十二股力量的框架仍有解释力。较有价值的读法是看哪些判断已被验证、哪些落空,用现实修正书中的乐观预期,而不是把书当作预言手册。
2023 年的修订版和这本有什么区别?
电子工业出版社 2023 年 7 月推出《必然(修订版)》,ISBN 9787121455803,正文篇幅与版式有所调整。若追求与初版阅读体验一致可选 2016 年版,若希望读到较新校订可考虑修订版。

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About the author

Kevin Kelly is an author included in this catalog, with one Chinese-language work currently listed: The Inevitable (Revised Edition), categorized under general computing. His English name, nationality, and dates of birth and death are not confirmed in the available public materials, so this page makes no speculation on those points. Judging from the work at hand, his writing addresses the overall direction of technological evolution and digital life, using a broad perspective to organize seemingly scattered phenomena and draw out trends that general readers can follow. The revised edition of The Inevitable suggests continued demand among Chinese readers for this kind of discussion. His prose emphasizes observation and judgment over technical detail, making it suitable for readers who want a big-picture view of where technology is heading.

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