Counterintuitive Investing: How Buffett Avoids Irrational Decision-Making Errors in the Stock Market, and an Innovative Investment Method Integrating the Essence of Finance, Psychology, Management, Statistics, and Other Disciplines

迈克尔·J. 莫布森 / 刘寅龙Guangdong Economic Publishing House · ChinaMar 2023

Rating 4.2
Word count
125K words
Chapters
42
ISBN
9787545441079

Tags

Management Decision ScienceBusiness DecisionsRisk ControlContrarian ThinkingInvestment PsychologyField CasesWealth StoriesPopular ExplanationCross-Cultural ViewPsychological Perspective

Summary

Antifragile Investing: An Innovative Approach That Draws on Finance, Psychology, Management, and Statistics to Show How Buffett Avoids Irrational Decisions in the Stock Market

Editor's review

This book's value lies not in stock-picking codes but in dissecting why investors repeatedly make decisions that look foolish in hindsight. Mauboussin places finance, psychology, game theory, and statistics on the same table, using cross-disciplinary cases—bees foraging, guppy mate choice, horse-racing odds—to show intuition's systematic biases in complex markets. The discussion of Buffett, Soros, Munger, and others focuses on control over choice and risk rather than hero worship. For readers who have read basic investing books but still lose emotional control in practice, it offers a decision-correction tool: admit intuition errs, then constrain it with probability, incentive structures, and multiple models. Don't treat every experiment as a precise prophecy; read it as mental training. Best consulted before reviewing trading discipline or auditing a portfolio—check your judgment framework first, then look at specific holdings.

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Reading tips

  1. Read the chapters on intuition biases and incentives first, then review your last three failed trades and check them one by one.
  2. Treat the cross-disciplinary cases as thinking exercises; after reading, retell in your own words the mapping between each case and an investment decision.
  3. Read alongside Thinking, Fast and Slow, focusing on how the two books handle intuitive and rational systems differently.
  4. After each chapter, write one actionable investment checklist item and build a personal decision checklist.

About the publisher

Guangdong Economic Publishing House China · Founded in 1995

Founded in 1995, Guangdong Economic Publishing House publishes in fields including economic management, investment and personal finance, finance and securities, applied psychology, popular science, and documentary literature. Its catalog ranges from investment classics such as Philip A. Fisher's "Paths to Wealth Through Common Stocks" to Michael J. Mauboussin's "More Than You Know," which blends finance, psychology, and management. In psychology and documentary writing, it offers works such as Stephanie Foo's "What My Bones Know," Lu Xiaoya's "Being a Mother to My Mother," and "When My Mother Got Alzheimer's." The list combines translations and original works, with authors from China and abroad in finance and psychology. Given limited public information, this profile reflects only the titles held in our catalog.

Contents

  1. 版权信息
  2. 权威推荐
  3. 《彭博财经》访谈跨学科解决投资中的决策困境
  4. SmartMoney访谈像“发现频道”一样有趣的股市真经
  5. 《福布斯》访谈魔鬼？狐狸？投资智者？
  6. 前言 让投资决策既准确又充满快感
  7. 第一部分 投资理念
  8. 第1章 赌博投机，还是股市投资？关注结果，重视过程
  9. 第2章 跑赢大市，还是赚钱？投资的专业化与商业化
  10. 第3章 贝贝·鲁斯效应期望值的频率与幅度
  11. 第4章 做股市里的黏液菌根据市场环境调整投资方式
  12. 第5章 玩弄风险还是被风险玩弄投资的风险、不确定性和预测
  13. 第6章 股市中的“神投手”持续获利靠的是能力还是运气
  14. 第7章 暴涨往往不只有一天损失厌恶倾向和组合周转率
  15. 第二部分 投资心理学
  16. 第8章 斑马为什么不得溃疡投资者的压力管理与次优化组合
  17. 第9章 在特百惠家庭聚会上学投资影响投资者行为的心理因素
  18. 第10章 决策中的情感与直觉管好你自己
  19. 第11章 如果散户不再跟风与模仿……孔雀鱼的爱情与择偶
  20. 第12章 行为金融学的“BUG”滥用行为金融学可能招致错误
  21. 第13章 当凯恩斯遇见马克·吐温长期期望、El Farol酒吧和自欺欺人
  22. 第三部分 创新与竞争战略
  23. 第14章 投资者，其实也是创客向飞机之父怀特兄弟学投资
  24. 第15章 行业周期进化论大脑发育对创新的启示
  25. 第16章 企业生命周期的停滞点创造性破坏和预期
  26. 第17章 投资组合里的果蝇行业加速变化对投资者的启示
  27. 第18章 步步为“盈”何时长线持有？何时短线出击？
  28. 第19章 寻找市场中的“老虎”伍兹称霸高尔夫球场的优势
  29. 第20章 别让市盈率变成“市梦率”推断的结果也许是厄运
  30. 第21章 均值回归和复苏永不停息的市场轮回
  31. 第四部分 科学与复杂性理论
  32. 第22章 迷宫、蚂蚁和资金管理多样化的信息来源助力业绩增长
  33. 第23章 蜜蜂指路投资者的集体智慧和思维
  34. 第24章 群众的眼睛揉不进沙子以集体的力量发现机会，解决问题，预见未来
  35. 第25章 来自两个极端世界的尾巴肥尾分布与投资策略
  36. 第26章 圣彼得堡悖论与成长股投资如何应对小概率的大规模事件
  37. 第27章 看门人的发财梦为何信从他人观点会损害你的财富
  38. 第28章 驱散拉普拉斯的恶魔股市真的有因果吗
  39. 第29章 如何获得更强大的力量幂律分布对投资者的启示
  40. 第30章 投资中的金字塔企业规模、增长率与估价
  41. 结语 融会贯通理念的投资前景
  42. 致谢

FAQ

Can I understand this book without a finance background? You can read it, but there is a threshold. The book involves finance, game theory, and statistics concepts, and the author often explains through cases; but if you know nothing about basic terms such as P/E ratio and risk-return, comprehension will suffer. Read an introductory investing book first, then this one, focusing on decision biases and not insisting on mastering every statistical detail.
Is this book teaching people to beat the market? No. It focuses more on why investors systematically misjudge and how to constrain intuition with a cross-disciplinary framework. Buffett and others are discussed to present ways of deciding, not to promise replicable returns. Treat it as a decision-error-correction manual rather than a money-making secret.
Are the psychological experiments and animal cases in the book reliable? These cases mainly serve as analogies and inspiration to help readers understand behavioral patterns in complex markets; they should not be treated as precise forecasting tools. Focus on the logic behind the cases rather than applying analogical conclusions directly to specific investments. If you are interested in the experiments themselves, consult a behavioral finance textbook.
Is it suitable as a group reading book for an investment club? Yes. The book covers judgment biases, risk perception, and incentive structures, which easily spark discussion. Suggest focusing each session on one decision bias, having members share their own real trading cases, and jointly compiling a checklist. This turns the content into team discipline better than simply sharing reading notes.

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About the author

迈克尔·J. 莫布森 Author · American

Michael J. Mauboussin is an American investment strategist and a scholar at the Santa Fe Institute who has long focused on the psychological factors and complex-system issues involved in investment decisions. His representative work, Counterintuitive Investing: How Buffett Avoids Irrational Decision-Making Mistakes in the Stock Market—an innovative investment approach integrating finance, psychology, management, and statistics, reflects his interdisciplinary orientation, seeking to combine perspectives from finance, psychology, management, and statistics to explain why investors often make irrational judgments in the market and to propose corresponding investment methods. He is also the author of The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck. Public information on his birth and death dates, educational background, and specific career history is limited; the library holds only one of his works, classified under management.

刘寅龙 Author

Liu Yinlong is an author and translator active in the Chinese-language book publishing field. His publicly available personal information is limited, and biographical details are not recorded in the available sources. Judging from the 25 titles in the collection, his work centers on investment and personal finance books, while also touching on military and management subjects. Representative works include The Little Book of Common Sense Investing (10th Anniversary Fully Updated Edition), Investment Steady Gains: Learning the Common Sense of Steady Returns from the Founder of the World's Largest Fund, Bogle on Index Funds, and Fisher on Growth Stock Profits: An Investment Master's 80-Year Method for Selecting Stocks. These titles revolve around index funds, long-term investing, and growth-stock selection, showing his familiarity with the knowledge traditions of value investing and passive investing. He has also translated The Coldest Winter: America and the Korean War and The Money Game, among others, spanning a broad range of subjects. His writing mainly conveys investment common sense and financial topics to general readers, giving him a certain influence in the field of personal finance and financial reading.